02 - Risk how-to

How to use Monte Carlo

Use this guide to operate the Monte Carlo setup, risk register, simulation run, results, driver analysis, mitigation planner, and imports/exports.

Quick Start

Open a project workspace and choose Monte Carlo from the project-level module buttons.
Open Setup and confirm the simulation settings.
Add or edit risk events and activity-level risk assumptions.
Click Run Simulation.
Review Results, Drivers, Mitigation, and Risk Mapping tabs using their filters and export controls.

Go to a project workspace.
Choose Monte Carlo in the Project level modules section.
Use Open Monte Carlo to launch it in the embedded workspace.
Use Load Demo if you are in the standalone demo and want sample risk data.
Use Reset example risks when you want to return the demo risk setup to its default state.

Open the Setup tab.
Set Iterations to the number of simulation runs you want to execute.
Set Target / Commit Finish when the module asks for a target finish date.
Choose a default distribution such as Triangular, PERT, Uniform, Normal, or Lognormal.
Enter a random seed when you want repeatable runs, or leave it blank when repeatability is not needed.
Turn Track criticality + sensitivity on when you want criticality and sensitivity outputs included.
Set the convergence target when the control is available.

Use + Add Risk to create a new risk event.
Choose Threat or Opportunity for the risk event type.
Enter the risk name and any available probability, duration, cost, or mapping fields shown in the form.
Assign the risk event to the relevant activity, WBS, or mapping bucket when the mapping control is shown.
Use the distribution controls on a risk or activity to switch between Use Default, Triangular, PERT, or another available distribution.
Remove or reset a risk event from the risk event controls when it is no longer needed.

Confirm the Setup fields and risk events are ready.
Click Run Simulation.
Wait for the Results tab to populate.
If you change setup values, risk events, distributions, or mappings, click Run Simulation again.
Use the visualization expand button when a result chart needs more screen space.
Use Close to return from an expanded result view.

Open the Results tab after a run completes.
Use the Month, Quarter, Year, or Week controls to change the time grouping where shown.
Use the histogram, S-curve, confidence cards, and result tables as the active simulation output.
Use chart expand controls to open larger visualizations.
Use export controls when a result table or chart output needs to be downloaded.

Open the Drivers tab.
Use Expand all to open every driver group.
Use Collapse all to close all driver groups.
Open individual driver rows or groups to see the activity or risk event details included in that driver.
Use available sorting or table controls to organize the driver list.

Open the Mitigation tab.
Add or edit mitigation actions in the planner.
Set action fields such as description, owner, timing, duration reduction, cost, or affected risk where available.
Use Run Mitigated Scenario to calculate the scenario with the selected actions.
Use Reset Actions to clear mitigation entries.
Use Export Action Plan CSV to download the visible action plan.

Open Risk Mapping to assign risk events to activities, WBS groups, or other available mapping buckets.
Use filters/search in Risk Mapping to find the activity or group you want to map.
Use Export Risk Register (JSON) to download the current risk setup.
Use Import Risk Register to load a previously exported risk register.
Use Daily burn rate and Total cost fields when the mitigation planner asks for cost assumptions.
Use Default buttons to return a field to the module default when available.